The China Passenger Car Association's September numbers read like a market splitting in two. For September 1-30, national PV retail came in at 1.702 million units, down 24% year-on-year though up 10% versus August. Year-to-date retail stands at 13.418 million, off 21% from the same stretch of 2025.
The new-energy half of the ledger is holding up far better: NEV retail hit 1.141 million units in September, down just 12% year-on-year and up 14% month-on-month, taking the retail penetration rate to 67.1% — with NEV wholesale penetration at 66.1%. Year-to-date NEV retail is 7.816 million, down 12%.
Do the back-of-envelope arithmetic and the story gets brutal: subtract NEV from the total and the ICE segment looks to have shed roughly 40% of its volume versus last September. The overall market isn't merely cooling — the combustion half is approaching collapse-velocity declines while electrified powertrains lose relatively little. Two-thirds of every car sold in China now plugs in; that share has stopped being a forecast and started being a fact.
August's numbers told the same story, and September confirms the trend is structural, not seasonal.
Editor's Note: A 24% market-wide drop with NEV only down 12% means the entire decline is concentrated in ICE showrooms. Legacy joint ventures betting on a petrol rebound are betting against their own sales floor traffic.
— need a chat about China NEV market? mail me @ sheng.ye@ipsos.com