CHINA’S PASSENGER VEHICLE MARKET IS PROJECTED TO GROW 6% IN 2025, BY CPCA

AUGUST 5, 2025 (BEIJING) – From January to June, cumulative retail sales of passenger vehicles and passenger NEVs increased by 10.8% and 33.3%, respectively.

Based on this, the CPCA (China Passenger Car Association) forecasting team, in mid-July, slightly raised its 2025 annual industry forecast due to better-than-expected performance in both domestic and export markets and rolling projections for the next four months. The overall forecasts are as follows:

• 2025 Passenger Vehicle Retail Sales: 24.35 million units, up 6% YoY, an increase of 300,000 units compared to the June forecast.
• 2025 Passenger Vehicle Exports: 5.46 million units, up 14% YoY, an increase of 160,000 units compared to the beginning-of-year forecast.
• 2025 NEV Wholesales: 15.48 million units, up 27% YoY, a slight decrease from the June forecast, with NEV wholesale penetration reaching 56%.
• 2025 Total Auto Wholesales: 34.04 million units, up 8% YoY, an increase of 5 percentage points compared to the beginning-of-year forecast.

IN 2024, CHINA’S AUTO INDUSTRY SURPASSED OTHER DOMESTIC SECTORS TO BECOME THE PILLAR OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY, MAKING ITS STABLE DEVELOPMENT THE PRIMARY STABILIZER FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, challenges and opportunities coexist. The international environment in 2025 remains complex and volatile, with the automotive market facing multiple pressures, including intense domestic competition (“involution”) and uncertainties over foreign tariffs.

In line with the Central Government’s directives, efforts this year will focus on curbing excessive internal competition, strengthening quality standards, and continuously optimizing market competition order. Given the high sales base in the previous year, the CPCA will continue to adjust its rolling forecasts for the auto market in the coming months.